November 2020 Business Event:
Strategic Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Executive Lounge Conversations held its first monthly business event on November 26th at Laruche, Fortitude Valley. Thanks again to everyone who attended. Our conversation topic was Strategic Decision Making Under Uncertainty and there were some great insights that came out of this discussion.
We began the night discussing Philip Tetlock, a young academic at the National Research Institute. In 1984, he started asking 284 world experts about their prediction for the future. Each expert has to give a prediction about an event and give it a likelihood. In total, he took 27,450 predictions over 20 years. Within the data there was much variation, some were better than others. This began our discussion about the future. Specifically, can we predict it? Can we shape it? Can we survive it? We then discussed how problems can be simple, complicated, or complex and conditions for making decisions can be certain, semi certain, or uncertain.
Before we asked each attendee three key questions about strategic decision making under uncertainty, we talked about the three types of decision making:
- Take no action/wait and see approach
- Take some action and monitor carefully
- Take dramatic action
We then asked our attendees these three questions and discussed each answer:
- How do we encourage innovation and creativity when the future is uncertain?
- What does it take to shift the mindset from fear to possibility?
- Can we plan for a set of fluid and alternative futures?
Event Book Review on Stoic Philosophy
During the event, we discussed this month’s book review ‘The Stoic Challenge: A Philosopher’s Guide to Becoming Tougher, Calmer, and More Resilient’ by William B. Irvine. This book harnesses the wisdom of one of the most popular and successful schools of thought from ancient Rome, Stoic Philosophy or Stoicism, and teaches us how to transform life’s stumbling blocks into opportunities for becoming calmer, tougher, and more resilient. Not only can we overcome everyday obstacles—we can benefit from them, too.
To download the full book review, please click here.
Interested in a Future Event?
If you would like to attend our next event, please look out in January for the date announcement and the location. Booking will be via the website here.